Major China Exports
Exports of China's Iron & Steel Were Cut down by 54.9% in Q1 of 2009
In the first quarter of 2009, China totally produced 127.44 million tons of crude steel, up by 1.4% YOY, in which the daily steel yields were 1.51 million tons in the last third of February; equivalent to the annual steel yields of 550 million tons. In March, the national average daily steel yields were 1.455 million tons, up by 36% compared with the lowest level 1.07 million tons of the daily steel yields in the first third of November 2008 and higher than the average level of the national daily yields of 1.37 million tons in last year. Meanwhile, the major foreign iron and steel enterprises cut down their production greatly. From January to February, the steel yields in 65 steel producing countries were 88.65 million tons, down by 37.2% YOY, exclusive of the steel yields in China. The steel yields in January and February in China accounted for 47.9% of the global yields.
In the first quarter of 2009, China exported 5.14 million tons of steel products accumulatively, down by 54.9% YOY. In March, the steel exports amounted to 1.67 million tons, dropped by 59.8% YOY. From January to March, the net exports of the steel products and billets were converted into 1.12 million tons of crude steel, decreased by 85.3% YOY, which was equivalent to the net exports of 4.52-million-ton crude steel in the whole year, down by 43 million tons compared with the net exports in 2008. In March, it was the first time that the net imports were shown in the steel products and billet converting into crude steel.
In March 2009, China exported 1.67 million tons of steel products and no steel billet was exported; imported 1.27 million tons of steel products and 460 thousand tons of steel billets. If all converted into the crude steel, in March, China totally exported 1.78 million tons of steels, increased by 120 thousand tons and up by 7.05% at link relative ratio; decreased by 2.66 million tons and down by 59.95% year on year. If all converted into the crude steel, in March, China totally imported 1.81 million tons of steels, increased by 340 thousand tons and up by 23.34% at link relative ratio; increased by 180 thousand tons and up by 11.36% year on year. In March, the net import volumes of the steels were 30 thousand tons in China, which had been the first time that took place the net import of steels in single month. From January to March, the accumulative net exports of the steels amounted to 1.13 million tons, decreased by 6.58 million tons and down by 85.32% year on year.
The composite index of the steel price went up again from the bottom low of 101.5 points in November of last year in Chinese market to 109 points in February this year. Subsequently, the prices of the steels were down all the way and to 95 points on 17th, April compared with the climax this year, in which the prices of 12mm deformed steel bar and 2.75 mm hot rolled coil were dropped by 660 Yuan per ton and 733Yuan per ton compared with the climax this year, down by 16.3% and 17.6% respectively.
Compared with the end of last year, the price index of the steels in Chinese market was 97.59 points in the end of March, down by 5.71 points compared with the 103.3 points in the end of last year, 5.53% of reduction rate, in which the price index of the long steels was cut down by 8.36% as well as 4.6% down in the price index of the board steels. Overall, at present, the price of the steel products in Chinese market continues to drop, which has been already lower than the price in 1994.
In the first quarter of 2009, the yields of the crude iron were increased by 5.039 million tons year on year in China as well as the increases in the consumption volumes of the ore into the furnace, which amounted to 7.9616 million tons. However, in the first quarter of 2009, the import volumes of the iron ore were increased by 20.8611 million tons year on year, 12.8995 million tons more imported than the consumption volumes of the ore into the furnace. In addition, the yields of the domestic fine ore were grown in the first quarter. It was obvious that the supplies of the ore into the furnace exceeded the demands in the domestic market.
In the first quarter of 2009, the average price of the imported iron ore was 80.47 USD per ton at CIF China (including FOB and shipping fees etc), down by 50.53 USD per ton over the previous year, 38.57% of reduction rate. According to the statistics from January to February, the average price of the imported iron ore was cut down by 37.44% year on year at CIF China, in which the price of the spot mine from India was dropped by 59.94%. Due to the high in the price of long contract mine, the average price of the mine from Brazil was decreased by 29.37% integrated the long contract mine and spot mine, the average price of the mine from Australia was reduced by 21.37% as well as 17.74% down in the South African mine. Owning to the iron ore supplies exceeding the demands obviously in the international market, the price of the imported iron ore showed the sharp decline in Chinese market.
According to the estimation, from the aspect of the new added yield capacity, the yield capacity of the crude steel will reach 650 million tons by the end of 2009, but the actual demands are less than 500 million tons. The yield capacity surplus has been the outstanding problem that restrains the development of the iron & steel industry.
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About the Author
Based on the database, Interviews and research methods from China Research and Intelligence, CRI analyzes the development and opportunities in this industry clearly.
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